The Division of Economics and Business faculty at Colorado School of Mines are regional, national and international leaders in applied research in business and technology, minerals and energy, and operations research. Our faculty and graduate students are involved in a wide variety of research projects in these fields, and are committed to sharing these results with academic and professional audiences.
- Mohammed Kemal and Ian Lange (2018). “Changes in institutional design and extraction path.” Environment and Development Economics, 1-17.
- Kerri L. Hickenbottom, Leslie Miller-Robbie, Johan Vanneste, Junko Munakata Marr, Michael B. Heeley, Tzahi Y. Cath (2018) “Comparative life-cycle assessment of a novel osmotic heat engine and an organic Rankine cycle for energy production from low-grade heat.” Journal of Cleaner Production, 191, August, 490-501.
- Abdulbaqi , Dana, Carol A. Dahl and Mohammed AlShaikh, (forthcoming 2018) Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) as a Stepping Stone to Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS). Mineral Economics.
- Bai, Yang and Carol A. Dahl (2018) “Evaluating the Management of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve during Oil Disruptions.” Energy Policy, 117, June, 25-38.
- Todd Moss and Morgan D. Bazilian. “Signalling, Governance, and Goals: Reorienting the United State Power Africa Initiative.” Energy Research & Social Science. May 2018.
- Akimaya, Muhammad and Carol A. Dahl (2018) “Estimating the Cross-Price Elasticity of Regular Gasoline with Respect to the Price of Premium Gasoline.’ Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. April.
- Ben Gilbert, Alexander James and Jason F. Shogren. “Corporate Apology for Environmental Damage.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, March 2018.
- Morgan D. Bazilian. “The Mineral Foundation of the Energy Transition.” The Extractive Industries and Society, February 2018.
- Minjia Zhong and Morgan D. Bazilian. “Contours of the Energy Transition: Investment by International Oil and Gas Companies in Renewable Energy.” The Electricity Journal, Volume 31, Issue 1, January-February 2018, 82-91.
- Corrado Di Maria, Ian Lange, Emiliya Lazarova. “A Look Upstream: Market Restructuring, Risk, Procurement Contracts and Efficiency.” International Journal of Industrial Organization, January 2018.
- Richard A. Hunt, Daniel Lerner and Dimo Dimov. “Action! Moving Beyond the Intendedly-Rational Logics of Entrepreneurship.” Journal of Business Venturing, Volume 33, Issue 1, January 2018, 52-69.
- Kerri L. Hickenbottom, Johan Vanneste, Leslie Miller-Robbie, Akshay Deshmukh, Menachem Elimelech, Michael B. Heeley, Tzahi Y. Cath (2017) “Techno-economic assessment of a closed-loop osmotic heat engine” Journal of Membrane Science. Volume 535, August, 178-187
- Akimaya, Muhammad and Carol A. Dahl (2017) “Simulation of Price Controls for Different Grades of Gasoline: The Case of Indonesia.” Energy Economics. 68, October, 373-382.
- David A. Comerford, Ian Lange, and Mirko Moro. “Proof of Concept that Requiring Energy Labels for Dwellings Can Induce Retrofitting.” Energy Economics, November 2017.
- Tulay Flamand, Ahmed Ghoniem, Mohamed Haouari and Bacel Maddah. “Integrated Assortment Planning and Store-wide Shelf Space Allocation: An Optimization-based Approach.” Omega 2017.
- Jared C. Carbone and Snorre Kverndokk. “Investments in Education and Health: Policy Responses and Interactions.” Human Capital and Health Behavior (Advances in Health Economics and Health Services Research, Volume 25), Emerald Publishing Limited, 2017, 33-83.
- Steven M. Smith, Krister Andersson, Kelsey C.Cody, Michael Cox, and Darren Ficklin. “Responding to a Groundwater Crisis: The Effects of Self-Imposed Economic Incentives,” Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 4, no. 4 (December 2017): 985-1023.
- Jared C. Carbone and Robert S. Gazzale. “A Shared Sense of Responsibility: Money Versus Effort Contributions in the Voluntary Provision of Public Goods,” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 139, (2017): 74-87.
- Jared C. Carbone and Nicholas Rivers. “The Impacts of Unilateral Climate Policy on Competitiveness: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Models.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 11, no. 1 (2017): 24-42.
- Graham A. Davis and Robert D. Cairns. “The Odd Notion of ‘Reversible Investment.” Journal of Banking and Finance, 2016.
- Böhringer, Christoph, Jared C. Carbone and Thomas F. Rutherford. “Embodied Carbon Tariffs.” Forthcoming in the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
- Jared C. Carbone and Kenneth J. McKenzie. “Going Dutch? The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy.” Canadian Public Policy, 42, no. 2, (2016): 168-180.
- Christoph Böhringer, Jared C. Carbone and Thomas F. Rutherford. “The Strategic Value of Carbon Tariffs,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 8, no. 1, (2016): 28-51.
- Victor Peredo-Alvarez, Whitney Trainor-Guitton, Ian Lange and Allen Bellas, Mandate a Man to Fish?: Technological Advance in Cooling Systems at U.S. Thermal Electric Plants, Water Resources Research, 2016: 52(2), 1418-1426
- Graham A. Davis and Robert D. Cairns. “Mineral Depletion and the Rules of Resource Dynamics.” The Energy Journal, Vol. 36, SI1, 2015
- Steffen Rebennack and Josef Kallrath, Continuous Piecewise Linear Delta-Approximations for Univariate Functions: Computing Minimal Breakpoint Systems, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 167(2):617-643, 2015
- Handbook of Bioenergy: Bioenergy Supply Chain – Models and Applications, Sandra D. Eksioglu, Steffen Rebennack, and Panos M. Pardalos (Eds.), Energy Systems, Springer, 2015, ISBN: 978-3-319-20092-7
- Didem Cinar, Panos M. Pardalos and Steffen Rebennack, “Evaluating Supply Chain Design Models for the Integration of Biomass Co-firing in Existing Coal Plants Under Uncertainty”, Chapter 8 in “Handbook of Bioenergy,” Sandra D. Eksioglu, Steffen Rebennack, and Panos M. Pardalos (Eds.), Springer, pp. 191-217, 2015
- Steffen Rebennack and Josef Kallrath, “Continuous Piecewise Linear Delta-Approximations for Bivariate and Multivariate Functions”, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 167(1):102-117, 2015
- Salman Mohagheghi and Steffen Rebennack, “Optimal Resilient Power Grid Operation During the Course of a Progressing Wildfire”, International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 73:843-852, 2015
- Gregory Steeger and Steffen Rebennack, “Strategic Bidding for Multiple Price-Maker Hydroelectric Producers”, IIE Transactions, 47:1-19, 2015
- Jeff Bryan, Ian Lange and Alex MacDonald, “Estimating the Price of ROCs”, The Electricity Journal, 2015:28(1), 49-57
- Brett W. Jordan, Roderick G. Eggert, Brent W. Dixon, and Brett W. Carlsen, “Thorium: Crustal Abundance, Joint Production, and Economic Availability,” Resources Policy (2015), pp. 81-93, DOI information: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2015.02.002.
- Energy Journal, 2015, 36(4) Carbon content of electricity futures in Phase II of the EU ETS Harrison Fell, Beat Hintermann, and Herman Vollebergh. View Abstract
- Stephen M. Frank and Steffen Rebennack, Optimal Design of Mixed AC-DC Distribution Systems for Commercial Buildings: A Nonconvex Generalized Benders Decomposition Approach,” European Journal of Operational Research, 242(3):710-729, 2015
- Böhringer, Christoph, Jared C. Carbone and Thomas F. Rutherford. “The Strategic Value of Carbon Tariffs,” . American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Forthcoming.
- Williams III, Roberton, Hal Gordon, Dallas Burtraw, Jared C. Carbone and Richard D. Morgenstern, “The Initial Incidence of a Carbon Tax Across Income Groups,” National Tax Journal, 68, no. 1, (2015): 195-214.
- Williams III, Roberton, Hal Gordon, Dallas Burtraw, Jared C. Carbone and Richard D. Morgenstern, “The Initial Incidence of a Carbon Tax Across U.S. States,” National Tax Journal, 67, no. 4 (2014): 807-830.
- Josef Kallrath and Steffen Rebennack, “Computing Area-Tight Piecewise Linear Overestimators, Underestimators and Tubes for Univariate Functions”, Chapter 14 in “Optimization in Science and Engineering,” S. Butenko, C.A. Floudas, and T.M. Rassias (Eds.), Springer, pp. 273-292, 2014
- Gregory Steeger, Luiz Augusto Barroso and Steffen Rebennack, “Optimal Bidding Strategies for Hydro-Electric Producers: a Literature Survey,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 29(4):1758-1766, 2014
- John T. Cuddington & Grant Nülle (2014) “Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 42, 224 – 252.
- Michael Samis & Graham A. Davis (2014) “Using Monte Carlo simulation with DCF and real options risk pricing techniques to analyse a mine financing proposal,” International Journal of Financial Engineering and Risk Management, 1, 264 – 281.
- Harrison Fell & Daniel T. Kaffine (2014) “Can decentralized planning really achieve first-best in the presence of environmental spillovers?,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 68, 46 – 53.
- Harrison Fell, Shanjun Li & Anthony Paul (2014) “A new look at residential electricity demand using household expenditure data,” International Journal of Industrial Organization , 33, 37 – 47.
- Corrado Di Maria, Ian Lange & Edwin van der Werf (2014) “Should we be worried about the green paradox? Announcement effects of the Acid Rain Program,” European Economic Review, 69, 143 – 162.
- Andreas Ferrara, Ian Lange & Edwin van der Werf (2014) “Voluntary Programs to Encourage Diffusion: The Case of the Combined Heat-and-Power Partnership,” The Energy Journal, 35, .
- Josef Kallrath & Steffen Rebennack (2014) “Cutting ellipses from area-minimizing rectangles,” Journal of Global Optimization, 59, 405-437.
- Josef Kallrath & Steffen Rebennack (2014) “Solving real-world cutting stock-problems in the paper industry: Mathematical approaches, experience and challenges,” European Journal of Operational Research , 238, 405-437.
- Steffen Rebennack (2014) “Generation expansion planning under uncertainty with emissions quotas,” Electric Power Systems Research , 114, 78 – 85.
- John Shortle, Steffen Rebennack & Fred W. Glover (2014) “Transmission-Capacity Expansion for Minimizing Blackout Probabilities,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 29, 43-52.
- Andrew Gulley & John E. Tilton (2014) “The relationship between spot and futures prices: An empirical analysis,” Resources Policy, 41, 109 – 112.
Working Paper Series
- WP2018-03: Energy efficiency, green technology and the pain of paying
Dayana Zhappassova, Ben Gilbert, Linda Thunstrom
- WP2018-02: Comparing applied general equilibrium and econometric estimates of the effect of an environmental policy shock
Jared C. Carbone, Nicholas Rivers, Akio Yamazaki, Hidemichi Yonezawa
- WP2018-01: Coal Demand, Market Forces, and US Coal Mine Closures
Brett Jordan, Ian Lange, Joshua Linn
- WP2017-11: Inter-Regional Coal Mine Competition in the US: Evidence from Rail Restriction
Kanishka Kacker, Ian Lange
- WP2017-10: Characteristic of Successful Energy Policy from Politics, Economics, Social and Technological Perspective – a qualitative analysis
Yuzran Bustamar, Ian Lange, Elizabeth Van Wie Davis
- WP2017-09: From Decentralized to Centralized Irrigation Management
Steven M. Smith
- WP2017-08: Economic Incentives and Conservation: Crowding-in Social Norms in a Groundwater Commons
Steven M. Smith
- WP2017-07: Dueling Banjos: Harmony and Discord between ADHD and Entrepreneurship
Daniel A. Lerner, Richard A. Hunt and Ingrid Verheul
- WP2017-06: Deinstitutionalization through Business Model Evolution: Women Entrepreneurs in the Middle East and North Africa
Richard A. Hunt, Lauren L. Ortiz-Hunt
- WP2017-05: Performance Heterogeneity Among Service-Sector Entrepreneurial Spinoffs
Richard A. Hunt, Daniel A. Lerner
- WP2017-04: Tales Left Tails Tell: Addressing Left-Side Truncation in Strategy Research
Richard A. Hunt, Daniel A. Lerner
- WP2017-03: The Oxpecker and the Rhino: The Positive Effects of Symbiotic Mutualism on Organizational Survival
Richard A. Hunt
- WP2017-02: Effects of Changes in Wholesale Electricity Market Structure on Wind Generation in the Midwestern United States
- WP2017-01: Updating Allowance Allocations in Cap-and-Trade: Evidence from the NOx Budget Program
Ian Lange and Peter Maniloff
- WP2016-11: Effects of Stricter Environmental Regulations on Resource Development
Ian Lange and Michael Redlinger
- WP2016-10: Interfirm Learning Economies in Drilling and Environmental Safety
Michael Redlinger, Ian Lange and Peter Maniloff
- WP2016-09: Electoral Incentives and Firm Behavior: Evidence from U.S. Power Plant Pollution Abatement
Matthew Doyle, Corrado Di Maria, Ian Lange and Emiliya Lazarova
- WP2016-08: Behavior of multi-product mining firms
Brett W. Jordan
- WP2016-07: Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Reducing Trade Costs Through Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa
Edward J. Balistreri, Maryla Maliszewska, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, David G. Tarr and Hidemichi Yonezawa
- WP2016-06: Changes in Institutional Design, Expropriation Risk and Extraction Path
Mohammad Kemal and Ian Lange
- WP2016-05: Natural Gas Contract Decisions for Electric Power
Matthew Doyle and Ian Lange
- WP2016-04: Bayesian Learning and Regulatory Deterrence: Evidence from Oil and Gas Production
- WP2016-03: Fuel Prices, Restructuring, and Natural Gas Plant Operations
Matthew Doyle and Harrison Fell
- WP2016-02: Ownership Rights versus Access Rights Allocation to Critical Resources: An Empirical Study of the Economic Impact of Changes in Oil Governance
- WP2016-01: The Supply-side Effects of Energy Efficiency Labels
David Comerford, Ian Lange and Mirko Moro
WP2016-01 Payne Institute Policy Brief
- WP2015-11: Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: Integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS)
Xiaolin Ren, Matthias Weitzel, Brian O’Neill, Peter Lawrence, Prasanth Meiyappan, Sam Levis, Edward J. Balistreri and Mike Dalton
- WP2015-10: Bribes, Bureaucracies and Blackouts: Towards Understanding How Corruption at the Firm Level Impacts Electricity Reliability
Jacquelyn Pless and Harrison Fell
WP2015-10 Payne Institute Policy Brief
- WP2015-09: Energy efficiency and emissions intensity standards
Harrison Fell, Daniel Kaffine and Daniel Steinberg
- WP2015-08: Division of Nonrenewable Resource Rents: A Model of Asymmetric Nash Competition with State Control of Heterogeneous Resources
Peter Maniloff and Dale T. Manning
- WP2015-07: Going Dutch? The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy
Jared C. Carbone and Kenneth J. McKenzie
- WP2015-06: Beneficial Leakage: The Effect of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative on Aggregate Emissions
Harrison Fell and Peter Maniloff
- WP2015-05: Mandate a Man to Fish?: Technological Advance in Cooling Systems at U.S. Thermal Electric Plants
Victor M. Peredo-Alvarez, Allen S. Bellas and Ian Lange
- WP2015-04: Drilling Down the Bakken Learning Curve
- WP2015-02: Carbon policy and the structure of global trade
Edward J. Balistreri, Christoph Böhringer and Thomas F. Rutherford
WP2015-02 Payne Institute Policy Brief
- WP2015-01: The Ethanol Mandate and Corn Price Volatility
Peter Maniloff and Sul-Ki Lee
WP2015-01 Payne Institute Policy Brief
- WP2016-08: A Multi-row Deletion Diagnostic for Infuential Observations in Small-Sample Regressions
by Graham Davis and Daniel Kaffine
- WP2016-01: The Supply-side Effects of Energy Efficiency Labels
by Ian Lange, David Comerford and Mirko Moro
- WP2015-10: Bribes, Bureaucracies and Blackouts: Towards Understanding How Corruption at the Firm Level Impacts Electricity Reliability
by Harrison Fell and Jacquelyn Pless
- WP2015-02: Carbon Policy and the Structure of Global Trade
by Edward J. Balistreri, Christoph Bhringer, and Thomas F. Rutherford
- WP2015-01: The Ethanol Mandate and Corn Price Volatility
by Peter Maniloff and Sul-Ki Lee
Mineral and Energy Economics Research Projects
Population Dynamics Thrust of the Integrated Multi-Sector, Multi-Scale Modeling (IM3) Scientific Focus Area
Dr. Jared Carbone was awarded a U.S. Department of Energy grant in an interdisciplinary collaboration with researchers at NCAR, NREL, and PNNL, among others.
A Look Upstream: Market Restructuring, Risk, Procurement Contracts and Efficiency
Dr. Ian Lange’s co-authored paper investigates the consequences of electricity market deregulation and how it impacts coal mining productivity.
Oil Price Shocks and Canada’s Economic Performance
Jared Carbone and Kenneth Mackenzie at the University of Calgary investigate the broader economic impacts on Canada of significant changes in world oil prices.
Energy Efficiency in Tradable Performance Standards
Professor Harrison Fell and his coauthors look at the crediting standards for energy efficiency projects – an important element of the EPA’s Clean Power Plan.
Drilling Down the Bakken Learning Curve
PhD student Mike Redlinger analyzes improvements in horizontal drilling within the Bakken Shale Play in northwestern North Dakota and northeastern Montana.
How Do We Count Nega-watts – Energy Efficiency in Tradable Performance Standards
Professor Harrison Fell’s work (with Dan Kaffine and Dan Steinberg) looks at crediting of energy efficiency project, so-called “nega-watts”, within the context of tradable performance standards in the electricity market. This is of particular importance as energy efficiency will likely be incorporated in many states’ plans to comply with the EPA’s Clean Power Plan.
Determining the success of carbon capture and storage projects
Ian Lange and Dominique Thronicker (University of Stirling)
The International Energy Agency says Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will be a key technology for meeting greenhouse gas goals. However, we do not have a systematic understanding of what makes CCS projects successful. Despite much effort into the development and demonstration of the technology in recent years, the number of CCS projects that are currently operational has fallen short of what is needed for CCS to be part of an abatement portfolio. Globally, over a quarter of CCS projects have been postponed, put on hold or cancelled altogether. However, there are also successfully operational CCS projects. Thus determining whether there are systemic characteristics that render CCS projects more likely to become operational while others are more likely to fail is important for CCS to reach its potential. A unique dataset that combines project information from various online CCS databases and contains all integrated CCS projects attempted globally, irrespective of sector, size or project outcome is utilized to uncover the factors associated with success.
We find that identification of the carbon dioxide (CO2) storage site as part of the planning process and a storage site with commercial benefit is significantly correlated to project success likelihood. This result is concerning given that non-commercial saline reservoirs account for by far the largest share of geological storage capacity. The choice of capture technologies is important. Post- and oxyfuel combustion are less likely to succeed than in other capture processes, such as pre-combustion, natural gas processing or industrial separation.
Past experience with CCS projects is negatively correlated to CCS project success. This result is surprising initially but less so when considering that less experienced investors are more likely to continue projects after it is clear they are unprofitable relative to experienced investors. Likewise initially surprising is the finding that public funding is not positively related to project success likelihood. A possible explanation for this result is that governments might look for marginally profitable investments to subsidize (allowing the private sector to finance projects expected to be profitable) or the potential for adverse selection in which projects are put forward by firms for public funding. However, we lack detailed funding data to fully explore which explanation fits better.
Optimal Resilient Power Grid Operation during the Course of a Progressing Wildfire
Steffen Rebennack and Salman Mohagheghi
Wildfires are natural phenomena that play a crucial role in many forest and grassland ecosystems. Under favorable conditions, i.e., extreme heat, availability of fuel, and high winds, they may spread beyond control and approach city limits. Power lines are vulnerable to wildfires in their vicinity, mainly due to increased conductor temperatures as a result of ambient temperature rising. This may lead to conductor annealing and/or increased sag. A violation of safety clearances of the lines could in turn lead to possible flashovers, and onset of cascading failures.
To address the situation, the operator may dynamically alter the ratings of the lines in the affected areas in order to reduce the flow of current through them, thereby assisting with conductor cooling. However, with reduced line capacities, the utility may not be able to supply all the loads from the main substation anymore. A solution is put forth in this research that enables the system operator to dispatch distributed generators, demand responsive loads, and Microgrids in order to supply loads under such emergency conditions. Due to the uncertain spread/severity of wildfires, the problem is stochastic in nature, and is therefore modeled as a two-stage stochastic optimization problem. First stage decision variables determine the reserves to be purchased before the onset of the event, while second stage decision variables represent operation setpoints. The efficiency of the proposed solution is demonstrated via two case studies.
Climate Policy and Competitiveness: Policy Guidance and Quantitative Evidence
Jared C. Carbone, Colorado School of Mines, and Nicholas Rivers, University of Ottawa
When considering adoption of a domestic climate change policy, politicians and the public frequently refer to concerns about competitiveness. Competitiveness in this context does not have a precise economic definition, referring variously to changes in employment, output, exports and well-being. In a project sponsored by Environment Canada, Dr. Carbone and Dr. Rivers discuss possible ways to anchor the concept of competitiveness in economic analysis. This framework then serves as the basis of a systematic survey the literature on the quantitative impacts of unilateral climate change policy derived from the results of computable general equilibrium (or CGE) models, the simulation models most often used by economists to evaluate these policies. They provide empirical estimates of the magnitude of competitiveness effects that might be associated with the adoption of unilateral climate change policies and an analysis of the key assumptions driving results produced by different models. Working Paper
Carbon policy and the Structure of Global Trade
Dr. Ed Balistreri, Dr. Christoph Bohringer (University of Oldenburg), Dr. Thomas Rutherford (University of Wisconsin)
Alternative perspectives on the structure of international trade have important implications for climate policy and its interaction with global markets. Under this project professors Edward J. Balistreri (Colorado School of Mines), Christoph Bohringer (University of Oldenburg), and Thomas F. Rutherford (University of Wisconsin) are considering carbon policy in the context of three widely applied, yet distinct trade theories. These structures are shown to have important implications for measures of carbon leakage and the spatial distribution of energy-intensive production. Furthermore, predictions about the transmission of carbon policy burdens to non-participating countries are critically dependent on the assumed structure of trade. It is shown that the structure of contemporary policy simulation models might significantly understate the importance of international markets in undermining subglobal climate action.
Policy Labels and Investments Decision-Making: The Effect of the Winter Fuel Payment on Renewable Installation
Dr. Ian Lange, Dr. Mirko Moro (University of Stirling) and Dr. Mohammad Rahman
Recent evidence suggests that labeling of unconditional cash transfers (food stamps, etc) leads recipients to spend more on the labeled good. This research shows that the Winter Fuel Payment (WFP), a transfer in the UK meant to help older households stay warm in the winter, has distortionary effects on the market for renewable technologies. Although the WFP does not require households to spend the cash benefit on energy, households in receipt of the WFP are statistically less likely to invest in renewable energy technologies, such as solar water heaters, solar panels and micro wind turbines. This is because the WFP name appears to encourage households to use fuel, rather than investing the payment in renewable energy technologies
Since WFP eligibility is based on the date at which a member of the household turns 60 years, and because the WFP is not means-tested, it is possible to compare households who just missed eligibility with those that are only recently eligible. Information on household characteristics such as employment status and income were also controlled for. To ensure that differences in renewable energy installations were attributable to the WFP name, researchers further looked for changes in the propensity to purchase other durable goods. No change in investing in a new kitchen or car was found between those in receipt of the WFP and those not, while there was a clear negative shift in the probability of installing renewable solar or wind technologies.
Keeping older citizens warm in winter could still be achieved by nudging people towards cleaner or more efficient energy sources. Perhaps a benefit name that includes the words ‘renewable energy’ or ‘energy efficiency’ would ensure that households consider more energy efficient technologies while still achieving the health goals of the current WFP policy. Working Paper
What’s killing coal? The effects of natural gas abundance and renewables on coal-fired plants
Dr. Harrison Fell and Dr. Daniel T. Kaffine (CU-Boulder)
Since 2007, coal-fired electricity generation in the US has declined by a stunning 25%. At the same time, natural gas-fired generation and wind generation have dramatically increased due to technological advances and policy interventions. We examine the joint impact of natural gas prices and wind generation on coal generation, with a particular focus on the interaction between low natural gas prices and increased wind generation. Exploiting detailed daily unit-level data, we estimate the response of coal-fired generation across six transmission regions within the US. We find that low natural gas prices and increased wind generation have both led to reductions in coal-fired generation. Furthermore, we find evidence that the interaction between natural gas prices and wind generation is statistically and economically significant, and led to a greater reduction in coal-fired generation than would be explained by either factor alone. For example, in the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator (MISO) region, the reduction in 2013 capacity factors of coal-fired plants due to low natural gas prices was twice as large with wind generation at 2013 levels compared to the case where wind generation stayed at 2008 levels. Similarly, in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region, had natural gas prices remained at 2008 levels, wind generation in 2013 would have reduced coal capacity factors by an inconsequential 0.1 percentage point; however, with natural gas prices at 2013 levels, wind generation reduced capacity factors by 4 percentage points. As a result, policies such as carbon pricing combined with increased renewable portfolio standards would be complimentary in terms of their impact on coal-fired generation.
Mining and Energy in Central America
Dr. Graham Davis
Mining and oil production is a relatively minor component of Central America’s economies. Yet, as exploration success in the more traditional regions of the world decreases mining and oil companies are looking at Central America as a target for production.Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, and Honduras have all seen mining or oil production increase in the past decade. Central America’s extant laws regarding exploration for and production of mining and oil are in most cases outdated and ill-suited for the current world order. In a research project coordinated by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), Professor Graham Davis is collaborating with researchers from several Central American countries to plot a path forward regarding public policy for mining and oil production. The final product will be a book co-authored with the IADB’s Regional Economic Advisor for Central America, Dr. Osmel Manzano.
Recycling, Solid Waste, and Public Policy
Dr. Dan Kaffine (Co-PI, research lead), Dr. Rod Eggert (Co-PI), Dr. John Tilton (Co-PI), Dr. Edward Balistreri, Dr. Michael Heeley
It has been more than two decades since the modern era of recycling and waste disposal began. This research project, generously funded by the Alcoa Foundation, examines the intersection between public policy and waste and recycling. Specific, on-going projects look at incorporating greenhouse gas emissions into waste and recycling policy-decision models, impacts of carbon pricing on aluminum production and recycling activities, trends in generation and recovery of municipal solid waste, optimal recycling rates of different materials, impacts of waste and recycling policies on secondary scrap markets, and drivers of recycling innovation. It is hoped that the outputs from these projects will provide policymakers with new insights and policy guidance in the selection of waste and recycling management approaches.
An Examination of the Mine Value Curve
Dr. Graham Davis (Sponsor: Denham Capital Management LP)
There is a belief amongst those in the mining industry that individual project share prices follow a fairly regular path as the project moves from exploration through to production. This price path at first rises, then falls once the major drilling results are in, and then rises again as the project moves towards production. Asset pricing dictates that such a price curve cannot be sustained, as investors would sell at the peak and buy at the trough, causing the curve to migrate towards one that has price increasing at the required rate of discount. This project seeks to explore whether such a curve actually exists, and if so, how it can be sustained given what appears to be trading strategies that would destroy the curve.
Replicating Sachs and Warner
Dr. Graham Davis
In 1997 Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner published the first of a series of empirical papers examining what has come to be called the Resource Curse. These papers have been cited thousands of times, have influenced development and industrial policies, and are the basis for many extensions and reexaminations of the Resource Curse theory. To my knowledge the papers have never been replicated, and so I undertook a program of research to do just that. I find that most of the regression results can be replicated, but that in some cases Sachs and Warner’s policy conclusions are based on erroneous interpretations of the regression coefficients. In a 2011 paper called The Resource Drag I also show that their early work suffered from omitted variable bias, and that once this bias is corrected there may no longer be a Resource Curse.
The Terms of Trade Debate: Implications for Primary Product Producers
Dr. John E. Tilton
The terms of trade debate initiated by Raul Prebisch and Hans Singer over half a century ago continues to this day, and is unlikely to be resolved soon. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, however, to suggest that countries should diversify away from the production of mineral commodities and other primary products, as Prebisch, Singer, and others have done, may be counterproductive, encouraging countries to abandon their most promising path to faster economic development.
This is because the long-run trends in the real prices of most goods reflect shifts in their market supply curves and in turn production costs. If the prices of primary products are falling but a country’s production costs are falling more, the producer surplus or wealth the country realizes is rising, increasing the benefits it receives from its primary product production and trade. Alternatively, if prices are rising but a country’s costs are rising more, the benefits from primary product production and trade are presumably falling despite the higher primary product prices.
This largely conceptual analysis will eventually be submitted for publication to a professional journal.
Material Efficiency: An Economic Perspective
Dr. John E. Tilton; coauthor: Patrik Söderholm (Luleå University of Technology)
This work presents an economic perspective of material efficiency, and discusses the role of public policy in providing market incentives for a more efficient use of materials. In doing so, it comments on the engineering approach to material efficiency presented in an article that Allwood and others published in 2011 in Resources, Conservation and Recycling. We argue that concerns over potential future resource scarcities do not represent a strong motive for introducing policies to foster greater material efficiency but that various environmental externalities and information failures in the relevant material markets do. Moreover, in such instances, policy makers should opt for regulatory measures that target the relevant market failures (e.g., environmental damages) as closely as possible. This normally means avoiding policies that directly encourage specific material efficiency options. Policy measures that instead address particular environmental problems and information externalities will enhance material efficiency in a more effective manner. This is because ex ante it is difficult for policy makers to know in what ways and by how much to alter material production and use.
The World of Metals: Understanding the Behavior of Metal Markets and Industries
Dr. John E. Tilton
This book project, which draws on my research and teaching over the past 30 years, aims to provide an overview for the interested non-specialist of how metal industries and markets operate and why they behave as they do.
The first half of the book, which is largely finished, examines the nature of metal demand and supply over both the short and long runs. Here among other things it looks at material substitution, recycling and secondary production, as well as by-product and co-product production. It then focuses on mineral markets and prices, and in particular why metal prices are so volatile in the short run, and why for many metals they have been falling in real terms over the long run. The recent rise in metal prices is also be examined, including the issue of whether this upturn reflects just another cyclical fluctuation or a reversal in the long-run downward trend in real prices. The first half of the book finishes by exploring international metal trade.
The second half will address a number of important policy issues associated with metal production and use. These include: the long-run threat posed by mineral depletion; the resource curse, or more generally the relationship between mineral wealth and the economic development of producing countries; the nature of the economic rents associated with mining and their distribution among mining companies, host governments, local communities, and other interested parties; and finally a host of issues related to mining and sustainable development, including the intergeneration equity and environmental and other social costs arising from mining and metal use.
Engineering and Technology Management Research Projects
Innovation and Firm Performance: The Value of Dense Versus Porous Thickets
Dr. Michael Heeley (with Jeffrey G. Covin, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business)
The importance of patented inventions in generating firm value has long been recognized. In this research we investigate the assumption that dense patent thickets are generally associated with increased value and argue that in certain contexts, porous thickets will actually be more positively associated with firm value. We hypothesize and find that the recency (or age) of the knowledge underlying the patent thicket and the competitiveness of the technological environment moderate the thicket density–firm value relationship. In doing so, we make an important theoretical contribution by showing when firm value is best promoted through creating stronger versus weaker barriers around innovations.
CVC Funding From the Start-Up Perspective: A Source of Uncertainty or Clarity in the Market for IPOS?
Dr. Michael Heeley (with Sharon F. Matusik, CU-Boulder, Markus Fitza, Bentley University)
Corporate venture capital (CVC) investments are an important component of technology entrepreneurship for established firms and can serve as a vehicle for identifying new technology opportunities. If the CVC benefits from using these investments strategically, though, what does this mean to the start-up receiving them? We investigate how the potential for behavioral uncertainty related to possible value appropriation by CVCs can create information asymmetries at technology start-ups’ IPOs. We find CVC investments are associated with increased underpricing. In contexts that further obscure whether the CVC might appropriate value (i.e., low IP protection, high industry concentration), underpricing is more pronounced.
Operations Research Projects
Stochastic Hydro-Thermal Scheduling
Steffen Rebennack, with collaborators Bruno Flach (IBM research), Timo Lohmann (Mines), Mario Pereira (PSR), and Thomas Vosson (University of Colorado)
In hydro-thermal scheduling problems, one is interested in determining the optimal operating policy for the use of hydro and thermal resources in order to minimize total expected costs of fulfilling the demand for electricity over a given time horizon. The mix of hydro-power assets with thermal power generation units is particularly challenging as they operate on different time scales. Power from hydro has basically marginal generation cost in the short term (as long as water is available) while thermal generation cost are governed by fuel prices. In order to adequately price the water in the reservoirs, optimization models, spanning several years, have to be solved. As the rainfall cannot be forecasted accurately over such long time horizons, point estimates of rainfall are replaced by distributions. The mathematical models then seek to find optimal solutions providing a trade-off between various inflow scenarios.
In this line of research, we make the following contributions:
- incorporation of CO2 emission constraints into the stage-decomposition framework of dynamic programming methods
- expansion planning with CO2 emissions constraints
- incorporation of fuel price and electricity demand uncertainty
- forecasting of CO2 emission allowances spot market prices
- unification of sampling and scenario tree approaches
- incorporation of risk constraints / measure
- convergence improvements of current solution techniques
Optimal Power Flow (OPF)
Steffen Rebennack with collaborators Stephen Frank (Mines), Josef Kallrath (BASF), P.K. Sen (Mines), and Ingrida Steponavice (University of Jyvaskyla)
OPF seeks to optimize the power flow within an electrical network. Aspects of optimization are operational cost, planning cost, reliability or network losses. The physical laws governing the flow of power in the grid make this problem particularly challenging. In the optimization language, the general OPF problem is a nonlinear, highly non-convex, large-scale mixed-integer optimization problem. In practice, OPF has been the predominant method for power systems analysis since its introduction in the 1960’s.
In this line of research, we make the following contributions:
- comprehensive literature review on existing solution techniques
- primer in OPF problems, targeted for Operations Researchers
- apply novel relaxation techniques to obtain globally optimal solutions
- optimization of building efficiency using DC power distribution